Yesterday on Forbes an article was published questioning: “who will buy Nokia’s Windows Phone line.” An analyst is trying to make a convincing argument based on the volume of Google searches for Nokia’s latest products; he argues that the buzz is just not enough, and therefore people must not be interested. He compares the Google Trends data from the Nokia N8, to the Lumia’s current Google Trends. There’s just one major problem with this assumption: the Nokia N8 name was known well in advance of both the official release and official launch thanks to a very well known russian blogger. In contrast, the word Lumia and Nokia were put next to each other just less than a month ago. Nokia’s stock has dropped over 9%, partly due to the negative speculation these analysts generate.
The Lumia 800 launch was specific for regions; so it’s not fair to make a global comparison. Here’s some screenshots from the Google Insights tool which shows the search volume for a given term, in a given region, within a given time. I have compared the terms “Nokia Lumia,” “Galaxy Nexus,” and “iPhone 4S” in launching countries for the last 7 days; the Lumia 800 just hit the market exactly 6 days ago, while the Nexus did 6 days ago. However, the Galaxy Nexus was announced 10 days before the Lumia; that’s gives it more time to build popularity. Still, you will see that the Lumia is sometimes more looked after than the Nexus, Android’s flagship phone, so people are certainly interested. Those who would argue that the term “Nokia Lumia” is biased; it’s probably not. All the marketing Nokia has been doing is for the Lumia 800; so people typing “Nokia Lumia” in google after watching an ad are most likely after the 800, not the 710. Worse case scenario, they want the 710… But hey, that’s still a Nokia phone.
First, the UK:
Note how people in England are looking more for the Lumia than the Nexus. (Below the graph, the blue bar is the Nokia Lumia).
Next up, the Netherlands. Absolute Nokia Lumia dominance over Google’s Galaxy Nexus. In fact, the Lumia gets considerably close to the iPhone 4S.
Next few countries, Germany, Spain, and France. Only Spain is more interested for the Galaxy Nexus; Germany and France are after the Nokia Lumia. Note Germany’s main cities volumes for the Lumia, which is the blue bar under the graph.
Here’s Spain. The only European country more interested in the Nexus.
I don’t know the process the analyst featured in Forbes used to determine searches; but the parameters I used seem very reasonable. The conclusion you could get from these screenshots is that Nokia launching markets are generally more interested in the Lumia than Google’s latest Android phone. Note that the Galaxy Nexus hit the market one day after the Lumia, and there has been issues with the phone’s quality: UK Galaxy Nexus bug. The fact that people are looking up more after the Lumia is remarkable having in account the Lumia is not a Galaxy Nexus competitor. The Lumia is a high-mid end phone while the Nexus is high-end.
What’s up with analysts?